StatSystems Sports NCAAB Report, Monday 2/21/11
STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 2/21/11
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFO WORTH BETTING ON ONE PAGE EACH DAY
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••• WEEK #16 NCAAB BETTING PREVIEW •••
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Sam Peckinpah was known for movies with violence at their core. Nothing was too bloody or gory for the old filmmaker. The last week an a half of the college basketball schedule played out as if 'Bloody Sam' was calling the shots, and if the season continues in Peckinpah's mold, we shouldn't expect the good guys to win in the end. It was only fitting that the carnage came during ESPN's BracketBuster week. Ohio State's loss at Wisconsin on Feb. 12 ignited the tough stretch for top-ranked schools. By the time the Buckeyes suffered their second loss of the campaign eight days later at Purdue, seven of the most recent AP top-10 had suffered defeat.
Kansas spit the bit in its first game after ascending to the No. 1 slot, setting the stage for Ohio State to move back to the top or opening the door for either Texas or Pittsburgh to assume the position. Neither the Longhorns nor the Panthers seemed to want the spot, however, the 3-4 teams respectively in the AP dropping conference road tilts on Saturday (Feb. 19). So it leaves writers and coaches with a real mess to sort through with the next set of rankings. Will we see Duke rise all the way from fifth to first following their 79-57 victory Sunday evening against Georgia Tech. Here's a fast rundown of where you'll find the top teams this week.
#1 KANSAS (25-2 SU, 14-13 ATS) - The Jayhawks take on a couple of Big 12 South clubs this week, first hosting Oklahoma State on Monday and then traveling to Oklahoma for Saturday's contest. Kansas fell 85-77 at the Cowboys as six-point favorites last season, winning 81-68 at home versus the Sooners but failing to cash as huge 21-point chalk.
#2 OHIO STATE (25-2, 11-13) - Life on the Big Ten road has resulted in consecutive losses for the Buckeyes, so they'll be more than happy to see their Week 16 slate strictly at home in Columbus. Ohio State welcomes Illinois to Value City Arena on Tuesday after the Illini put up a tough fight in Champaign on Jan. 22, an eventual 73-68 win for the Buckeyes (minus three). Indiana arrives in Columbus on Sunday; OSU covered a 13-point line in Bloomington on Dec. 31 with an 85-67 triumph.
#3 TEXAS (23-4, 16-6) - Coming off their first loss since early January, the Longhorns should jump right back in the win column this Tuesday when they host Iowa State. Texas finishes the week on the road at Colorado on Saturday, a team they cracked at home last season, 103-86, missing the 21-point spread.
#4 PITTSBURGH (24-3, 11-11) - The Panthers will looking to maintain their two-game lead in the Big East when they host West Virginia on Thursday. The two schools met in Morgantown on Feb. 7 with Pitt a 71-66 winner in a contest that closed as a pick 'em on the NCAA odds board. Pittsburgh will close the week on Sunday at Louisville.
#5 DUKE (25-2, 15-11) - The Blue Devils slip out of ACC play to host Temple on Wednesday, a game we will feature here at Stat/Systems Sports. Duke finishes the week off on the road in Blacksburg against Virginia Tech, a team the Blue Devils have beaten four straight.
#6 SAN DIEGO STATE (27-1, 16-10) - Steve Fisher will have all week to prepare his Aztecs for Saturday's rematch versus BYU. The Cougars were favored by 5½ when they handed San Diego State its only loss of the season Jan. 26 in Provo, 71-58. The Aztecs have reeled off seven wins since then, going 4-3 ATS in the stretch. Brigham Young scored a 71-69 win in San Diego last season, a 'push' for bettors who got in on the closing number that favored the Cougars by a pair.
#7 BRIGHAM YOUNG (25-2, 11-12) - Before they go to San Diego on Saturday, the Cougars host Colorado State on Wednesday. BYU won and covered as seven-point chalk in Fort Collins on Jan. 22.
#8 NOTRE DAME (21-5, 13-9) - Their seven-game Big East streak done, the Fighting Irish will end a three-game conference road stretch Wednesday at Providence. Notre Dame will then return to South Bend to host Seton Hall, a possible look-ahead alert on that one with the Irish having games versus Villanova and Georgetown to follow.
#9 GEORGETOWN (21-6, 15-11) - The Hoyas will host Cincinnati on Wednesday and remain home for Saturday's crucial meeting with Syracuse. Georgetown beat the Orange Feb. 9 at the Carrier Dome, 64-56, as a 4½-point underdog, snapping a three-game regular season losing skid against 'Cuse.
#10 WISCONSIN (20-6, 14-8) - An opportunity to sweep a pair of Big Ten rivals awaits the Badgers this week. Bo Ryan's charges will travel to Michigan on Wednesday after beating the Wolverines in Madison on Jan. 5 as 12-point favorites, 66-50. The week ends at home versus Northwestern on Sunday. Wisconsin pounded the Wildcats in Evanston Jan. 23, easily covering the one-point spread in the 78-46 rout.
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***** MONDAY, JANUARY 21ST NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL KNOWLEDGE *****
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(All results ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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••• QUICK HITS •••
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• SYRACUSE @ VILLANOVA, 7:00 PM ET - Wells Fargo Center - Philadelphia, PA ESPN
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--SYRACUSE: 0-8 ATS Away revenging SU loss as favorite.
--VILLANOVA: 11-0 Under off 4+ ATS losses.
Villanova (+5.5) made 11-24 from arc in 83-72 win at Syracuse Jan 22, but Stokes (4-11 from arc 1/22) missed last few games, and Wildcats are struggling (4-4 in last 8 games) with last three all decided by 3 or less points. Big East home favorites of 4 or less points are 17-11 vs spread. Syracuse is 2-3 in last five road games, 3-7 vs spread in last 10 overall.
• VALPARAISO @ WI-GREEN BAY, 8:00 PM ET
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--VALPARAISO: 5-20 ATS off home win.
--WI-GREEN BAY: 8-2 ATS off BB losses.
Green Bay (+8) upset Valparaiso 63-61 Jan 23, holding Valpo to 38.2% from floor, but Phoenix lost its last five games, with three of last four by 1 or 2 points. Horizon home teams are 12-8 vs spread if the number is 3 or less points. Crusaders split last six road games; quick turnaround after nationally televised win Saturday with Dick Vitale in their gym.
• OKLAHOMA ST @ KANSAS, 9:00 PM ET ESPN
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--OKLAHOMA ST: 3-11 ATS as road underdog.
--KANSAS: 13-6 ATS as favorite of 10+.
Kansas covered its last four home games since Texas loss, winning by 24-17-23-26 points. Oklahoma State lost three in row, six of last eight games, losing tough one at home by point to Aggies Saturday night; OSU is 1-5 as Big 12 road dog, losing away games by 23-4-19-1-11-18 points. Double digit home favorites are 8-9 vs spread in Big 12 play.
• SAMFORD @ COLL OF CHARLESTON, 7:00 PM ET
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--SAMFORD: 3-14 ATS vs. team with winning record.
--COLL OF CHARLESTON: 11-1 ATS off BB wins by 10+.
Charleston won its last six games (5-0-1 vs spread); they were up 28 at half on Vermont Saturday; Cougars are 5-2-1 as SoCon home favorite, winning home games by 9-8-21-29-9-25-19-18 points. Samford lost its last four games; they're 1-5 as road dog, losing away games by 13-5-19-38-6-22 points. SoCon home favorites of more than 13 points are 11-4.
• FURMAN @ UT-CHATTANOOGA, 7:00 PM ET
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--FURMAN: 11-3 ATS as favorite.
--UT-CHATTANOOGA: 6-0 ATS at home revenging a loss where opponent scored 75+ points.
Furman (-11) crushed Chattanooga 85-59 at home Jan 22, holding Mocs to 34% from floor, 3-22 from arc; Paladins won five of last six overall, but they split last six road games. SoCon home underdogs of less than 6 points are 7-12 vs spread. Mocs didn't play Saturday; they lost last two games by 14-10 points, failed to cover last four games as an underdog.
• W CAROLINA @ UNC-GREENSBORO, 7:00 PM ET
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--W CAROLINA: 46-68 ATS off ATS win.
--UNC-GREENSBORO: 5-14 ATS as home dog.
Western Carolina (-12) beat NC-Greensboro 83-73 at home Feb 5, going 11-21 from arc. UNCG is 7-1-2 vs spread in last 10 games, losing 99-90 Saturday (+7) when Elon made 16-34 behind arc; Spartans won three of last four home games. SoCon home underdogs of less than 6 points are 7-12 vs spread. Western won its last five games, by 16-10-22-5-7.
• KENT ST @ W MICHIGAN, 7:00 PM ET
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--KENT ST: 7-1 Under off non-conference game.
--W MICHIGAN: 12-31 ATS if favored last game.
Kent State lost last two games, allowing 86-73 points, after having won previous six games; they're 3-3 on MAC road. Western Michigan won its last three games, by 2-12-3 points; they're 4-1 at home in conference, with wins by 7-17-2-2 points and a loss to Buffalo. MAC home teams are 10-7-1 vs spread when spread is less than 3 points.
• UCF @ UTEP, 1:00 PM ET
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--UCF: 0-8 ATS off conference loss.
--UTEP: 6-0 ATS at home off home win.
Third road game in six days for Central Florida squad that is just 3-9 in C-USA; their last six games were all decided by 7 or less points. UCF is 1-2 as road dog, losing away games by 5-17-16-7-5 points. UTEP is 3-2 as home favorite, winning home games by 10-23-4-10-12 points. C-USA home favorites of 5+ points are 11-23-1 vs spread this season.
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• NOTES & TIPS
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--Corey Stokes, Villanova Wildcats: Villanova’s senior guard is still considered questionable for Monday’s game against Syracuse as he’s still hobbled by turf toe. Stokes, who averages better than 14 points per game, also leads the nation with a 93.5 percent shooting percentage from the foul line and has missed three straight games. Coach Jay Wright said last week that Monday’s game would be the earliest possible return for Stokes, but he should be considered at best a game-time decision as of now.
--Oklahoma State’s leading scorer, Marshall Moses’ status for Monday’s game against Kansas is up in the air. He left Saturday’s loss to Texas A&M after playing just seven minutes. The team has not released an update on whether he'll be able to go against the Jayhawks, but there were reports on Twitter that he had to be taken to hospital to receive fluids. Moses is putting up 14.1 points per game on the year and also leads the team averaging 7.3 rebounds while shooting better than 55 percent from the field.
The 6-foot-7 senior swingman had scored in double figures in six of the last nine games before Saturday’s game. The Cowboys are pegged as 18-point underdogs against the Jayhawks. Oklahoma State is a long way from the club that started the year 9-3-1 against the spread in lined games. The Cowboys have lost six of their last eight games outright and have dropped the cash in seven of their last eight games heading into Monday’s contest against Kansas. Oklahoma State is pegged as a big 18-point underdog.
--After being held to just three points and zero rebounds in 20 minutes of work in an upset loss to Kansas State, Kansas big man Markieff Morris blew up for 26 points and 15 rebounds in Saturday’s win over Colorado in a performance the Jayhawks have been waiting for. "I could tell that he was going to play well based on the way that he was practicing,” Marcus Morris told reporters. “He was totally dominating in practice and was dunking everything around the rim. Like coach said, practice refers to the game and that's exactly how he played. He dominated in practice, and he dominated in the game."
--Top 4 teams in AP Poll all lose this week past. The top four teams in The Associated Press' Top 25 all lost last week, the first time that has happened since November 2003. The rough week for the highly ranked started Monday when No. 1 Kansas lost 84-68 at Kansas State. Saturday was the rough day for No. 3 Texas, which lost 70-67 at Nebraska, and No. 4 Pittsburgh, which lost 60-59 to St. John's at Madison Square Garden. Second-ranked Ohio State completed the quartet on Sunday becoming the only one to lose to a fellow ranked team, 76-63 to No. 11 Purdue.
The week of Nov. 25, 2003 saw No. 1 Connecticut, No. 2 Duke, No. 3 Michigan State and No. 4 Arizona all lose. Two of them, Connecticut and Duke, lost to unranked teams, while Michigan State lost to No. 6 Kansas and Arizona was beaten by No. 8 Florida. Kansas was No. 1 in the next week's poll, followed by Florida, Connecticut and Missouri, which was No. 5 the previous week. Michigan State was fifth and Arizona fell to seventh.
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Stan 'The Man Szumera continues to make history as one of the Nation's Top Sports Gaming Analysts of all time. The Man's reputation as the ultimate Sports Insider expands by the year. His coveted early NCAA College Basketball, along with his National Basketball Association Selections have literally move the number as soon as they're released and there are few analysts in this business today who can equal his big play record over the years.
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••• NCAAB INJURIES & MOTIVATION •••
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Football season is behind us, along with the NBA All-Star break, and we find ourselves smack in the middle of both the college and pro basketball seasons. Fortunately for bettors, there are dozens of games each day to look for soft sides, totals, and winning opportunities. One thing to keep in mind as we come down the home stretch in college and pro basketball is that we are approaching the point where some teams are more motivated than others. There are many reasons for this: Injuries, personnel, coaching, postseason races at stake.
George Mason, for instance, is tops in the Colonial Athletic Association and has two easy conference games on deck, so the Patriots are in great shape to finish as the top team. They have been playing like a motivated team, on a remarkable 13-0 SU/ATS run after winning a Bracket Buster game at Northern Iowa. That also helps the RPI rank. George Mason is talented and deep, led by 6-4 senior G Cam Long (15.3 ppg), 6-6 junior Ryan Pearson (14.5 ppg, 6.3 rpg) and 6-9 junior Mike Morrison (6.7 ppg, 5.7 rpg), 14th in the nation in shooting (.481%), tops in the Colonial conference in 3-point shooting (40%).
The team it beat, Northern Iowa, is on a 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS run that coincided with the loss of leading rebounder Lucas O'Rear, gone for the season after fracturing his right ankle. Another team dealing with injuries is Temple. The Owls lost forward Michael Eric for the season with a fractured right patella and on Sunday they played without Scootie Randall (foot), who is day to day. They didn't need them in a rout of St. Joseph's, 66-52, though they failed to cover. Randall is expected back for Wednesday's game at No. 5 Duke. A candidate for the A-10's most improved player of the year, Randall has averaged 17.3 points over the last eight games and is second on Temple in scoring at 11.6 points per game. He also leads the Owls in three-pointers (45). Freshman forward Anthony Lee (herniated disk) and senior forward Craig Williams (fractured fifth metatarsal of his left foot) have missed the entire season with injuries.
Junior point guard Juan Fernandez (left knee bone bruise) missed four games. And senior power forward Lavoy Allen (sprained left ankle) is back but missed time two weeks ago. Temple clinched its fourth consecutive 20-win season after defeating Richmond. The Owls finished 29-6 last season and went 22-12 in 2008-09 and 21-13 in 2007-08. Keep in mind Temple is only 4-7 ATS the last 11 games and the lack of depth is a concern. The team the Owls defeated on Sunday St. Joseph's has its own problems. The Hawks failed to win a city series game this season and the program was hit this week with off-court trouble. Hawks guard Patrick Swilling is no longer enrolled at the school and center Todd O'Brien will not play until the completion of the university's judicial process. St. Joe's is on a 5-8 ATS run.
Out West, a pair of motivated teams met over the weekend because they are vying for the top spot in the Pac-10. Arizona (12-2) is in first place in the conference with UCLA and Washington (10-5) close behind. In a showdown, Arizona held on to top the Huskies, 87-86, with a late block. "I thought it was goaltending," one player said. Arizona (23-4) moved 1½ games ahead of UCLA atop the Pac-10. The game sailed over the total, which was not a surprise as the two teams are No. 1 and No. 2 in scoring in the conference. Washington is No. 1 in Pac 10 in scoring (85.6 ppg), No. 2 in the nation, and the Huskies' 48% shooting is 15th in nation, led by 5-9 junior Isaiah Thomas Jr (16.8 ppg) and 6-9, 240-pound senior Matthew Bryan Amaning (16 ppg, 8).
Arizona is on a 7-2 run over the total; Washington on a 6-2 run over. Meanwhile depth is a problem for the Huskies, however: Scott Suggs became the latest casualty when he suffered a left MCL sprain three minutes into the Huskies' game at Arizona State last Thursday. Washington's depth was relatively thin without its starting shooting guard, so Coach Lorenzo Romar was forced to rely on an 8-man rotation and a 2-3 zone defense. Without Suggs, its best three-point shooter, redshirt freshman C.J. Wilcox came off the bench and softened the Sun Devils zone with four three-pointers and 16 points. The Huskies are 0-5 in games decided by five points or less.
A year ago the Arizona Wildcats were young, but now they have taken a step forward as the team to beat in the conference. The centerpiece is 6-8 sophomore Derrick Williams (19.5 ppg, 8 rpg), an NBA prospect who shoots 64% from the field and takes 9.3 free throws per game, tops in the nation. He has help with 6-6 soph Solomon Hill (7.8 ppg, 4.4 rpg) and Kevin Parrom on a club that has been hot, on an 8-0 SU, 6-1-1 ATS run. If the Wildcats and Huskies meet in the Pac 10 tourney again, note that the 'over' is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings, the home team is 6-3 ATS in the last 9 meetings, and the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. And March is just around the corner!
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NOTE: College Basketball betting is becoming more popular each year. This is known as one of the sports where a smart bettor who practiced proper money management can make some really huge profits. Once a bettor begins to study and understand College Basketball Lines, he or she can gain a better understanding of how the bookies set their numbers. The bookies set a lot of these College Basketball Lines with the public in mind. They know the general public is going to bet on the popular teams every week so there are some great situations to get good numbers by going against teams like this.
It is always best to shop around when looking for the best College Basketball Lines. Many different books release different numbers and College Basketball Lines always tend to differ at each sportsbook. If you are truly interested in finding the best College Basketball Lines, it is always best to have funded accounts at - at least five sportsbooks.
